Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Monday, February 12

Here are our top NHL player props for Monday’s four-game slate. The schedule features three early games and a nightcap between the Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights.

All four home teams are the favorite in the NHL odds, and the New York Rangers are saddled with the highest vig in their matchup against the Calgary Flames. I’m particularly interested in the bout between the Arizona Coyotes and Philadelphia Flyers. Arizona takes a five-Game losing streak into Philly, and the Flyers have rattled off three consecutive wins out of the All-Star break while allowing a pedestrian four total goals.

Here are our free NHL picks for Monday, February 12.

NHL prop picks and best bets for February 12

  • Meier Over 2.5 shots (-135 at Bet99)
  • Shesterkin Over 25.5 saves (-105 at Bet99)
  • Guenther Over 1.5 shots (-120 at Bet99)

Picks made on February 12 at X:XX X.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Timo time

Home cooking has served New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier well this season. He’s registered a healthy 60 shots and 122 attempts through 19 games at the Prudential Center, and his shot total remains at 2.5 for Monday’s game against the visiting Seattle Kraken. 

Meier was locked into a 3.5-shot total for the better part of two years, so the recent drop is a chance to buy low. The Kraken also climb from 27.52 shots against per 60 minutes to 30.64 per 60 on the highway, and Seattle has allowed a healthy 30.68 shots per 60 through 16 games out of the holiday break. 

With the Kraken allowing more shots, I value these Timo Meier odds even more because he’s projected to slot down the depth chart with Curtis Lazar and Dawson Mercer, and it’s Meier who is the go-to shooter of the three. With the advantage of the last change, Meier should avoid Seattle’s top defenders, too.

Timo Meier prop: Over 2.5 shots (-135 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #2: Shesterkin serves up the saves

The Calgary Flames are cooking along a four-game winning streak with an average of 28.5 shots per game, and they head into Madison Square Garden on the final leg of a four-game roadie. I’m expecting them to continue firing shots as a sizable underdog. Calgary ranks 12th with 30.9 shots per 60 minutes in the league, too, so pucks on net is a priority.

My big lean here Monday is that New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is a prime candidate for statistical correction. He’s an elite talent with a Vezina Trophy on the mantle, and backup Jonathan Quick has outplayed him to this point of the season. There’s definitely no goalie controversy in Manhattan, and there’s definitely improvement ahead of Shesterkin’s run-of-the-mill .899 save percentage and -0.23 goals saved above average per 60 minutes this season. After all, he posted .924 and 0.42 marks through his first 100 Games in the league.

I also value these Igor Shesterkin odds because the Over 25.5 saves is trading at -114 through Caesars. The difference in prices checks out as a positive expected value of 4%, and Shesterkin has also only started once since January 26. He’s rested, on home ice, and this vig isn’t crippling.

Igor Shesterkin prop: Over 25.5 saves (-105 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #3: Go with Guenther

Arizona Coyotes winger Dylan Guenther ranks fifth in shots and third in attempts per 60 minutes since rejoining the club, and he’s pacing the team in attempts per 60 with the man advantage. Make no mistake, the Philadelphia Flyers suppress opposing shots with the best of them, but that’s priced into these Dylan Guenther odds.

While Guenther is listed way down the depth chart, Arizona has balanced the lineup, and skating with fellow youngster Logan Cooley in favorable five-on-five matchups is a gift. The duo have driven possession with a 53.1 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and Guenther Sports a 1.5 relative CF%.

The days of Guenther trading at 1.5 shots are going to be short-lived, so I’ll be taking advantage whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Dylan Guenther prop: Over 1.5 shots (-120 at Bet99)

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