Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Monday, January 15

We’ve got afternoon action on the NHL schedule on Monday, and I’ve got a trio of NHL player props to start the week on the right foot.

The slate opens with several mismatches in the NHL odds, including the Florida Panthers carrying huge chalk in their home game against the Anaheim Ducks. Add the Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, and Vancouver Canucks all trading as sizable favorites, and the game between the Seattle Kraken and Pittsburgh Penguins projects to be the closest from the early wave.

Here are my free NHL picks for Monday, January 15.

NHL prop picks and best bets for January 15

  • Terry Under 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)
  • Gaudreau Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
  • Toffoli Under 0.5 points (+105 at Bet99)

Picks made on January 15 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Terry in trouble vs. Cats

The Florida Panthers are the No. 1 defense in my ratings, and they just had a 10-game winning streak snapped Saturday. I’m anticipating the Cats bouncing back with a tidy defensive game against the inferior Anaheim Ducks.

In particular, I value Florida’s dominant 5-on-5 possession Game. The Panthers rank second in Corsi For percentage (56.6%) while allowing the second-fewest goals (2.03) and fourth-fewest expected goals (2.32) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Add a sixth-ranked 84.2 penalty-kill percentage, and the Anaheim offense is in trouble.

This is also a tough schedule spot for the Ducks. Anaheim has dropped seven of eight and is on the fourth stop of a six-Game road trip.

Turning to Troy Terry's odds, while he’s a go-to scorer and one of the few Ducks who drive 5-on-5 possession, he’s also missed the scoresheet in 21 of 39 games. Additionally, I don’t expect him to generate consistent scoring chances while lining up against the best Panthers. Each of Florida’s top-six wingers and top-four defensemen have a CF% above 56.8%, after all.

If you’re willing to pay a higher vig than Terry's -105 odds in this market, I also like linemates Adam Henrique (-145) and Ryan Strome (-170) to miss the scoresheet against Florida on Monday.

Troy Terry prop: Under 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #2: Offense down for Johnny Hockey

Columbus Blue Jackets winger Johnny Gaudreau is no longer a consistent scorer, and he’s currently reeling along the worst offensive season of his career. After posting a disappointing 2.86 points per 60 minutes last year, Gaudreau has dipped down to a 1.92 mark through 43 Games this season — tied for 202nd among NHL regulars.

Additionally, the 30-year-old winger is sporting career lows in individual point percentage (61.9%), shots (6.43), attempts (12.04), and individual high-danger scoring chances (1.99) per 60.

The Vancouver Canucks are also scorching along a 13-2-2 stretch while allowing just 2.01 goals and 2.27 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Additionally, the Canucks have taken the ninth fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 while sporting a fifth-ranked 86.7 penalty-kill percentage, and No. 1 goalie Thatcher Demko is 10-1-1 with a .920 SV% during the surge. 

Finally, the Johnny Gaudreau odds are off the mark in the points market. He sports the shortest odds on the Blue Jackets to mark the scoresheet Monday, but he ranks eighth on the team in points per 60 minutes among regulars. 

Johnny Gaudreau prop: Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #3: TD Garden fruitless for Toffoli

New Jersey Devils winger Tyler Toffoli has seen his offensive numbers freefall since the calendar flipped to December. He’s collected a pedestrian four goals and four assists across 19 contests, and his 1.5 points per 60 minutes are a far cry from the 3.37 mark he posted through the first 21 games of the year.

The first-year Devil has always been a streaky scorer, but Tyler Toffoli's odds in the points market aren’t baking in his recent cooler enough. He’s missed the scoresheet in 13 of the highlighted 19 games since the beginning of December. There’s also been a huge drop in his on-ice expected goals percentage. Toffoli posted a team-high 5.29 xGF per 60 to start the year and has declined to a 3.99 mark across the past 19 outings.

Facing the Boston Bruins is no longer the matchup nightmare of years past, but home ice continues to be kind. The B's are 12-3-3 while allowing the fourth-fewest goals per 60 (2.09), fifth-highest goals for percentage (55.4%), and sixth-highest team save percentage (.928) at 5-on-5 at TD Garden. Boston also ranks second in penalty-kill percentage (89.4%) at home.

Tyler Toffoli prop: Under 0.5 points (+105 at Bet99)

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