Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Tuesday, December 4

Monday brings a six-Game slate to the NHL odds board with a handful of marquee matchups, with the Battle of Pennsylvania between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and a rematch of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final between Dallas and Tampa Bay kick-starting the action.

It’s a pair of late games that have my attention, though. The Arizona Coyotes host the Washington Capitals, and I’m anticipating a pair of ‘Yotes wingers capitalizing on the matchup and filling up the shots column.

Additionally, I anticipate the nightcap between the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights to be a nightmare for the Blues.

Here are my free NHL picks in the NHL player prop and team total market for Monday, December 4. 

NHL prop picks and best bets for for December 4

  • Keller Over 2.5 shots on goal (-115 at DraftKings)
  • Crouse Over 2.5 shots on goal (+120 at BetRivers)
  • Blues team total Under 2.5 (-105 at BetRivers)

Picks made on December 4 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Calling Keller

The Washington Capitals land in a sneaky tough schedule spot Monday, and the Arizona Coyotes have been a dog with a bone at Mullett Arena this season.

Washington is playing the final leg of their five-game West Coast road trip Monday, while Arizona has rolled off three consecutive home wins and four straight overall.

I’m particularly drawn to the Clayton Keller odds because he’s the go-to shooter on the No. 1 line, with Logan Cooley and Nick Schmaltz both checking out as low-volume shooters and capable playmakers. 

Keller has also topped this 2.5-shot total in three of the past four games while averaging a healthy 3.5 shots and 5.25 attempts. Additionally, there’s nothing scary about the matchup.

The Caps have surrendered a middling 30.57 shots per 60 minutes this season, with the number climbing to 32.5 across their past four Games on the noted roadie. 

DraftKings price My projection My price Expected value
-115 3.58 -168 17%

Clayton Keller prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-115 at DraftKings)

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Prop bet #2: Cuirse with Crouse

I’m doubling down on the Desert Dogs with Arizona winger Lawson Crouse. As noted, the Capitals aren’t an intimidating or shot-suppressing opponent, and Crouse has shown an uptick in shot volume over his past six Games.

He’s pacing the Coyotes with 20 shots and 40 attempts during the span, and the 26-year-old winger is driving possession alongside linemates Nick Bjugstad and Matias Macelli. The trio boasts a 54.3 Corsi For percentage while generating 33.4 shots and 68.2 attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Additionally, I value Crouse’s increased ice time during the noted six-game stretch. He’s up to 17:58 per night with 1:46 on the power play.  

BetRivers price My projection My price Expected value
+120 3.21 -137 27%

Lawson Cruise prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+120 at BetRivers)

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Prop bet #3: Singing the Blues

This is an off-market offering from BetRivers, with bet365 hanging a -120 price for the St. Louis Blues to stay Under 2.5 goals.

The Vegas Golden Knights boast the third-best defense based on my ratings, while the Blues rank 26th in offense. Additionally, Vegas has surrendered the fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes and Sports a second-ranked .938 team save percentage.

Add the Golden Knights’ fifth-ranked 86.5 penalty-kill percentage, and it’s easy to see why they’re hanging with the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.

Still, I place more value on the inferior cast of characters jumping the boards for St. Louis. The Blues rank fourth last in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.43) while being caved in to the tune of a 45.7 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.

BetRivers price My projection My price Expected value
-105 2.01 -128 10%

St. Louis Blues team total: Under 2.5 (-105 at BetRivers)

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