NBA standings, Western Conference playoff picture: Kings on cusp of No. 2 seed; Blazers into play-in field

The Sacramento Kings, who haven't been to the playoffs since 2006, the NBA's longest current drought, defeated the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday for their eighth win in their last 11 games, and are now just one game back of the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies. 

Meanwhile, the Pelicans loss created a five-way tie at the bottom of the Western Conference play-in race, beginning with No. 9 Utah Jazz and ending with No. 13 Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Tuesday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Denver Nuggets (46-19)

The Nuggets would have to go in the absolute tank to blow the No. 1 seed. With 17 games to play, they hold an effective seven-game lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: 1
  • Current first-round matchup: TBD
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver has clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play

2. Memphis Grizzlies (38-25)

Memphis' seed feels tenuous now that Ja Morant is out indefinitely. With 19 games to play, the Grizzlies lead the No. 3 Kings by one in the loss column and the No. 4 Suns by four. Looking on the bright side, Memphis has the league's easiest remaining schedule. 

  • Projected seed: 2
  • Current first-round matchup: Winner of Mavericks/Clippers play-in
  • Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader

3. Sacramento Kings (38-26)

The Kings have won eight of their last 11 and trail the No. 2 Grizzlies by just one in the loss column. At present, they also own the tiebreaker over Memphis with a higher conference win percentage. The Kings hold a three-game lead over the No. 4 Suns, but there are two head-to-head matchups remaining. Our SportsLine model has the Suns ultimately passing Sacramento for the No. 3 seed. 

  • Projected seed: 4
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves
  • Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference record 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Phoenix Suns (36-29)

The Suns are 3-0 since the Durant trade and have a great shot to pass the No. 3 Kings, whom they trail by three Games with two head-to-head matchups left. The Suns lead the No. 5 Warriors by an effective three Games with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: 3
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play

5. Golden State Warriors (34-31)

The Warriors continue to struggle on the road, falling to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in L.A. Still, they have won five of six and hold a one-loss lead over the No. 6 Wolves and No. 7 Mavericks. 

  • Projected seed: 5
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Suns
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched

6. Minnesota Timberwolves (34-32)

The Wolves are tied in the loss column with No. 7 Dallas and just one up on the No. 8 Clippers and No. 9 Jazz. The good news is the Wolves own the tiebreaker over both those teams, so the cushion is effectively two games. The race to stay above the play-in line is going to be tight. SportsLine doesn't like Minnesota's chances to do so. 

  • Projected seed: 7
  • Current first-round matchup: at Kings
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT

7. Dallas Mavericks (33-32)

The Mavericks lost six of their last 10 to fall below the play-in line, tied in the loss column with the No. 6 Wolves, who own the tiebreaker. Dallas trails No. 5 Golden State by just one game but leads the No. 11 Lakers by just two. 

  • Projected seed: 8
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers (play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play

8. Los Angeles Clippers (34-33)

The Clippers are two back of the No. 5 Warriors, one back of the No. 6 Wolves, and just one up on the No. 9 Pelicans, No. 10 Jazz and No. 11 Lakers. Our SportsLine model likes them to rise above the play-in line. 

  • Projected seed: 6
  • Current first-round matchup: at Mavericks (play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched

9. Utah Jazz (31-34)

Utah has the same 31-34 record as the No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Pelicans and No. 13 Thunder. In tiebreaker scenarios that involve three or more teams, the nod, in order, goes to the team with the best head-to-head record against all teams involved. At the moment, the Jazz are tops in that scenario. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Blazers (play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play

10. Portland Trail Blazers (31-34)

The Blazers, for the time being, move into the play-in field by virtue of New Orleans' loss to Sacramento on Monday. See Utah's section for the explanation on tiebreakers involving three or more teams. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Current first-round matchup: at Jazz (play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder clinched

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

11. Los Angeles Lakers (31-34)

The Lakers have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers and No. 12 Pelicans. In tiebreaker scenarios that involve three or more teams, the nod, in order, goes to the team with the best head-to-head record against all teams involved. At the moment, that leaves the Lakers out of the play-in tournament. 

  • Projected seed: 10
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage

12. New Orleans Pelicans (31-34)

After losing to the Kings on Monday, the Pelicans have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers and No. 13 Thunder. See the Lakers section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams are sorted out. 

  • Projected seed: 9
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves:  Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (30-34)

The Thunder, at 30-34, are a half-game back of the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers and No. 12 Pelicans. See the Lakers section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams are sorted out. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched

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